Time Series Workshop

Quant
Introduction to Time Series
Author

Mike Aguilar

Published

March 24, 2026

Overview

I’m hosting a Time Series Workshop for Fuqua’s MQM and MSQM programs.

  • 25Mar2026 from 4pm-6pm in RJR
  • Live 2hr session
  • Focus on Macro & Finance applications
    1. Data Prep, 2) Explore, 3) Explain, 4) Forecast

New additions to the workshop

I’m lucky enough to host this talk at least once a year. Some new additions:

  • Global Models (e.g. deepAR)
  • Foundation Models (e.g. Chronos)
  • Uncertainty quantification via Conformal methods

Slides

  • I’ve prepared a relative expansive slide deck, which you can use as a reference guide.
  • We will not cover every slide/topic during the live session.
  • Instead, we will eschew the details in favor of a quick overview. You can dive deeper later.

Case Study

  • Coding exercise covering most (but not all of the topics within the slides)
  • QMD R file is here
  • Compiled Code here

A Few Useful Time Series packages

R Packages

1. Data Preparation

Core Data Handling

  • data.table
  • dplyr
  • tidyr

Time Index & Date Handling

  • lubridate
  • zoo
  • xts
  • tsibble

Missing Data & Interpolation

  • imputeTS
  • zoo (na.approx)

Mixed Frequency / Alignment

  • tempdisagg
  • midasr

Data Sources

  • quantmod
  • tidyquant
  • fredr

2. Explore

Autocorrelation / Cross-correlation

  • stats (acf, pacf, ccf)
  • forecast
  • TSA

Stationarity & Unit Root Testing

  • tseries
  • urca
  • fUnitRoots

Cointegration

  • urca
  • dynlm
  • tsDyn

Clustering Time Series

  • TSclust
  • dtw
  • cluster

Decomposition / Filtering / Seasonality

  • forecast
  • stats (stl)
  • seasonal (X-13 ARIMA-SEATS)
  • mFilter
  • feasts

Dimension Reduction

  • stats (prcomp)
  • FactoMineR
  • dynfactoR
  • dfms
  • keras
  • torch

3. Explain (Modeling)

Linear / Econometric Models

  • dynlm
  • lm
  • plm

ARIMA / SARIMA

  • forecast
  • fable

VAR / Multivariate Models

  • vars
  • tsDyn

Error Correction Models (ECM)

  • dynlm
  • urca
  • tsDyn

State Space Models

  • KFAS
  • dlm
  • bsts

Volatility Models

  • rugarch
  • fGarch

4. Forecast

Classical Forecasting

  • forecast
  • fable
  • prophet

Forecast Evaluation

  • yardstick
  • MLmetrics

Machine Learning

  • caret
  • tidymodels
  • randomForest
  • xgboost

Deep Learning / Global Models

  • torch
  • keras
  • modeltime

Foundation Models (via Python)

  • reticulate (interface to Chronos, TimeGPT)

Python Packages

1. Data Preparation

  • pandas
  • numpy
  • polars
  • dateutil
  • fancyimpute
  • midaspy
  • yfinance
  • pandas_datareader
  • fredapi

2. Explore

Autocorrelation / Cross-correlation

  • statsmodels

Stationarity

  • statsmodels
  • arch

Cointegration

  • statsmodels
  • arch

Clustering

  • tslearn
  • dtaidistance
  • scikit-learn

Decomposition / Filtering

  • statsmodels
  • pmdarima
  • x13_arima_analysis

Dimension Reduction

  • scikit-learn
  • statsmodels
  • tensorflow
  • pytorch

3. Explain (Modeling)

Linear / Econometric

  • statsmodels
  • linearmodels

ARIMA / SARIMA

  • statsmodels
  • pmdarima

VAR / VECM

  • statsmodels

ECM / Cointegration

  • statsmodels

State Space Models

  • statsmodels
  • pykalman

Volatility Models

  • arch

4. Forecast

Classical Forecasting

  • statsmodels
  • pmdarima
  • prophet

Machine Learning

  • scikit-learn
  • xgboost
  • lightgbm

Deep Learning / Global Models

  • gluonts
  • pytorch-forecasting
  • darts

Foundation Models

  • nixtla (TimeGPT)
  • amazon-chronos
  • transformers