TIPS Signals
Macro
Markets
Treasury Not Seeing Heightened Inflation
Yield on the 10Yr TIPS at most recent auction (17Sep2026) was 2.653%, vs 2.438% at the time of the previous auction (23July2026). The implication is the REAL yields have risen.
What about inflation expectations embedded within that TIPS yield?
It appears that inflation expectations are off their summer highs and are even falling throughout September.
Implication: the recent rise in nominal rates may not be (entirely/mainly) an inflation premium, but rather a rise in real rates.