Quantifying Risk

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Tutorial on setting the probability within scenario analysis
Author

Mike Aguilar

Published

October 21, 2025

Suppose you’re conducting a scenario analysis. You have a forecast for one of the potential realizations. How do you assign a likelihood to that realization? …. here is a tutorial within R for a few techniques.

Note: there are MANY more elegant approaches than displayed here, but this video provides some important pedagogical tools.